Poll puts Bowser with commanding lead over Catania

A recent poll conducted by Economic Growth D.C. puts Democratic mayoral nominee Muriel Bowser in the lead for the Nov. 4 election. Bowser received 45 percent of the votes from the poll’s 800 likely voters, whereas opponents David Catania and Carol Schwartz received 33 and 12 percent, respectively.

Seven percent of likely voters are still undecided, however, and there’s a lot of evidence to suggest that the city’s black voters, which account for nearly half of D.C.’s population, are very divided this time, compared to prior elections.

Bowser’s lead, however, has only grown since the last round of polling, in which Catania was eight percentage points behind. Polling data suggest that, while Catania has a majority of white votes, Bowser’s commanding lead among likely black voters makes up for this small disadvantage.

Perhaps sensing their position, Catania’s campaign just put out new advertising calling attention to Bowser’s former adviser who is now accused of corruption. The ads are Scandal-themed and suggest that Bowser will be a corrupt mayor.

Photo: crystalndavis via Flickr

One Comment on “Poll puts Bowser with commanding lead over Catania

  1. 13% for the D candidate at two weeks out is far far far from any type of “commanding lead”. You must be returning from a galaxy far far far away or not very familiar with polling on this race. Bowser’s support plummeted since the primary back in April 2014 (remember?). 20% or more of her current vote total describes themselves as “soft” meaning they could switch. Finally, while Schwartz is polling at a decent (given her long long long absence from local electoral politics), it seems likely that as her momentum stalled from the moment she announced, her vote may disappear or evaporate in the actual voting booth. It is almost a miracle shot for anyone other than the D to win this election given the demographics of the electorate. But the final factor is that Bowser has demonstrated the extraordinary potential to lose by being too cautious and too tied to the status quo (corruption and all). it just might could happen. Don’t set your type for “Bowser Beats Catania” headlines as yet ….

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